Samenvatting

A regional risk profile (RRP) is a systematic ordering – by likelihood and impact seriousness – of identified hazards and threats in one of the Netherlands’ 25 safety regions. Since 2010, RRPs follow the Dutch National Risk Assessment (NRA) as a basis for prioritising regional safety capacities. In Europe, RRPs are proliferating, and the corresponding risk-assessment approach is further spreading internationally. The methodology comprises risk identification, scenario development, multi-criteria impact evaluation, expert likelihood estimation, a two-dimensional risk diagram and an analysis and prioritisation of safety capabilities. A compact overview and discussion is provided of the 25 published RRPs for the Netherlands, each covering between 9 and 40 hazards and threats, along with their most and least worrying risk scenarios. It appears that for many regions pandemic disease, electricity black-out and major flooding are most worrying, while transport accident, industry fire and disturbance of water supply are (relatively) least worrying. Also, in different regions similar risk scenarios (e.g., pandemic disease and electricity black-out) are assessed rather differently, both by likelihood and by impact seriousness. Apparent weaknesses of the RRP (and the NRA) approach so far are, among other: lack of stakeholder involvement, rigid multi-criteria impact evaluation, hybrid methods for likelihood estimation, forced comparison of disparate risk scenarios, and unclear decision rules for risk acceptance. Independent review and validation of major RRP components is recommended for strengthening overall results as a reliable basis for regional safety policies. The ‘new risk thinking’ is considered in view of the long-problematic standard-setting approach about Individual Risk and Group Risk in the framework of Dutch external-safety policies. The RRP approach may be called ambitious and much-demanding. External validation and closer cooperation between safety policy-makers and scientists seem desirable.