Samenvatting

To limit the collateral consequences of a criminal record, there is increasing attention for ‘evidence of rehabilitation’, which can counterbalance risk factors stemming from a criminal history, for example when assessing requests for a Certificate of Conduct (‘VOG’ in Dutch). Since screening procedures are often regarded as complex, opaque, ambiguous and inconsistent – also by professionals within the criminal justice system – the authors present a first quantitative analysis of the factors that contribute to the chance of successfully winning a Certificate of Conduct in appeal. Our analysis of all published case law since 2004 (N=383) shows that administrative judges in Certificate of Conduct cases mainly refer to risk factors based on the criminal history: the number and seriousness of the offences and the times lapsed. Protective factors and evidence of rehabilitation play only a marginal role. Moreover, in a significant proportion of cases it remains unclear how relevant factors, such as the applicant’s interest, are weighed, if they are referred to at all. This necessitates not only reconsideration of rehabilitation policy, but also more foreseeability, certainty and transparency in criminal record screening decisions.